SWOD48
SPC AC 050941
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CST THU JAN 05 2012
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET SUGGEST THAT SPLIT UPPER FLOW WITH A GENERAL
TENDENCY FOR LONGWAVE TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE DAY 4-8 PERIOD. FOCUS WILL BE ON EARLY NEXT WEEK
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AS IT
GRADUALLY EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS LESSER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABILITY INHERENTLY REMAINS REGARDING THE
STRENGTH/TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. WHAT CURRENTLY SEEMS
PROBABLE IS THAT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE/GENERALLY DEVELOP
EASTWARD EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CONUS THROUGH
DAYS 5-7 MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ACCESS TO AN
INCREASINGLY/RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT MIGHT BE
POSSIBLE BY AROUND DAY 5/MONDAY ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SOUTH TX
/MAINLY PER THE ECMWF/ AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. SUBSEQUENTLY...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SPREADS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WHAT MAY ULTIMATELY BE A MORE PROBABLE SEVERE
THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION/PERHAPS MID-SOUTH ON
DAY 6/TUESDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS ON DAY
7/WEDNESDAY.
WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT SEEMS POSSIBLE DAY 5/MONDAY AND
MORE SO INTO DAYS 6/7 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED...SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY/CONFIDENCE IN THIS TIME FRAME
REMAINS MODEST. AS SUCH...NO 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS
ARE CURRENTLY DELINEATED. SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL BETTER BE ABLE TO
ASCERTAIN THE MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE RISK DURING THIS
PERIOD.
..GUYER.. 01/05/2012
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