SWOD48
SPC AC 070953
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST SAT JAN 07 2012
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SOME SEVERE THREAT IS EVIDENT DAYS 4-5 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE COUNTRY...AS MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
PROGRESSING A MID-LEVEL LOW EWD FROM TX AT THE START OF DAY 4 /TUE.
JAN. 10/ ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DAYS 4-5...AND THEN OFF THE
CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC COAST AREA BY THE END OF DAY 5 /12Z THU. JAN.
12/. AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW -- INVOF LA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD -- IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ENEWD WITH TIME...INTO THE MID SOUTH
REGION BY THE END OF DAY 4...AND THEN MOVING E OF THE APPALACHIANS
TO THE CAROLINAS/VA AREA DAY 5 BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST.
WHILE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT
TRAVERSES THE SOUTHEAST -- PARTICULARLY NEAR AND JUST E OF THE
SURFACE LOW CENTER WHERE ACCELERATED LOW-LEVEL SELYS ARE PROGGED...A
MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO REMAIN
VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY. WITH A GENERALLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
PROGGED IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND WITH VERY WEAK LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...EVEN LIGHTNING PRODUCTION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN
MUCH OF THE REGION. STILL...WITH UPDRAFT ROTATION NONETHELESS
LIKELY...LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT REMAINS EVIDENT DAY 4 IN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION...AND THEN DAY 5 INVOF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS. ATTM HOWEVER...APPARENT THREAT CONTINUES TO
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS REQUIRED TO INITIATE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AREA.
..GOSS.. 01/07/2012
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