SWOD48
SPC AC 080959
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST SUN JAN 08 2012
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DAY 4 /WED. JAN. 11/...BUT
BEGIN DIVERGING SUBSTANTIALLY THEREAFTER -- LIMITING CONVECTIVE
FORECAST CERTAINTY BEYOND DAY 4.
BOTH MODELS BRING A CLOSED LOW FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY DAY 4
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO THE NC/SERN VA COAST BY THE END OF DAY
4. WITH THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW TO LIKEWISE TRACK ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH TO NEAR THE SERN VA COAST NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO -- IS EVIDENT. THE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES EARLY INTO THE CAROLINAS/SRN VA
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...BUT ATTM THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR DESPITE FAVORABLE SHEAR.
THUS...ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT IS EVIDENT -- AND THUS A 30%
EQUIVALENT THREAT AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
AFTER DAY 4...A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR IS PROGGED BY THE
ECMWF TO MOVE STEADILY SEWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OFFSHORE
BY THE END OF THE DAY 6 /FRI. JAN. 13/ PERIOD. MEANWHILE
THOUGH...THE GFS -- WITH A MUCH DIFFERENT UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION --
DEVELOPS A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE ON DAY 5
/THU. JAN. 12/...THUS KEEPING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FAVORABLY-SHEARED
WARM SECTOR ONSHORE OVER PARTS OF GA/FL. HOWEVER...WITH THREAT IN
ANY CASE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED...AND DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL MODEL
DIFFERENCES...NO THREAT AREAS ARE WARRANTED.
..GOSS.. 01/08/2012
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