SWOD48
SPC AC 110954
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST WED JAN 11 2012
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EVIDENT
THROUGH DAY 5 /SUN. JAN. 15/ GIVEN COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
PERSISTING OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS.
BEGINNING DAY 6 /MON. JAN. 16/...A NRN STREAM TROUGH SHIFTING INTO
THE N CENTRAL CONUS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL BRING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND SWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH SOME RETURN OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE NWD INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT
SAGS SLOWLY SEWD...THUNDER THREAT WILL INCREASE -- POSSIBLY
INCLUDING SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. THEN...AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE
ZONAL DAYS 7-8...THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST REGION AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY -- CONTINUING
THUNDER/POSSIBLE LOWER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SRN STATES.
ATTM HOWEVER...THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT
INCLUSION OF 30%-EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.
..GOSS.. 01/11/2012
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