SWOD48
SPC AC 160805
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CST MON JAN 16 2012
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A DRY PATTERN WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE D4-8 PERIOD WITH MAINLY
WNWLY TO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATE
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND D6 BUT THERE
IS NO AGREEMENT ON TIMING. REGARDLESS...LITTLE MOISTURE WOULD BE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS.
FOR THE D7-D8 TIME FRAME...MODELS INDICATE A LARGER SCALE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN SATES...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS.
WHILE THIS LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE PLAINS...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW.
..JEWELL.. 01/16/2012
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