SWOD48
SPC AC 240945
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT TO START THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD...WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY
IN THE DAY 4 /FRI. 1-27/ TIME PERIOD. WHILE A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
COULD EXIST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT UNTIL IT MOVES OFFSHORE...DEGREE OF
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED
TO SLOWLY SAG SWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. THE RESULTING
COOLER/DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS SUGGESTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE DAY 6 /SUN. 1-29/...AS
VARIOUS SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES CROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DRIVING WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS. HOWEVER...DISPARITY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES -- AND THE OVERALL PREDOMINANCE OF
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WHICH WOULD HINDER APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE RETURN IN ANY CASE -- SUGGEST THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 01/24/2012
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