DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 310954
SWOD48
SPC AC 310954

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND AN
EJECTING MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE MODELS COUPLE THE
LOW AND MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY/DAY 4 AS A
STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EAST
AND NORTH TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM HERE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS THE MODELS MOVE THE MOIST SECTOR SEWD INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER
TO MID-MS VALLEY EARLY ON SATURDAY/DAY 5 AND IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY/DAY 6 AND MONDAY/DAY 7...THE
MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SERN STATES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT A SLIGHT RISK AREA
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND NORTH TX ON FRIDAY/DAY 4 BUT
WILL WAIT UNTIL THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK IN ORDER TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.

..BROYLES.. 01/31/2012

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