MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0020

ACUS11 KWNS 170524
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170523
MOZ000-170730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/CENTRAL/SRN MO.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170523Z - 170730Z

BAND OF TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS...ALONG
AND S OF COLD FRONT DELINEATED BELOW. MRGL SVR HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE
ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT...AS CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MO.
SOME BACKBUILDING AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALSO IS POSSIBLE
OVER WRN OZARKS...CONDITIONALLY EXTENDING THREAT SWD TOWARD AR
BORDER. BRIEF/QLCS-ORIGIN TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THIS
THREAT ALSO IS VERY CONDITIONAL GIVEN LACK OF MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NEAR SFC.

05Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT FROM LOW OVER N-CENTRAL IL SWD
ACROSS PORTIONS CALLAWAY/MORGAN/CEDAR COUNTIES MO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL AND E-CENTRAL MO...WHILE SRN
PORTION OF TSTM BAND REMAINS OVER WARM SECTOR. CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN IN NNE-SSW ALIGNED BAND STRADDLING FRONT AT OBLIQUE
ANGLE...AND MOVING NEWD 40-50 KT OVER AREAS BETWEEN JLN-COU.
LOW-LEVEL MOIST/WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPLY FAVORABLY UNSTABLE
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AT OR JUST ABOVE SFC IN WARM SECTOR...WITH FCST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING MUCAPE IN 250-700 J/KG RANGE OVER MOST OF AREA.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 50-60 KT AND RELATED STRENGTH OF
LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF THAT FLOW...AND ISOLATED STG-DAMAGING
GUSTS TO PENETRATE SHALLOW LAYER OF DIABATICALLY COOLED NEAR-SFC
AIR. THAT DIABATICALLY COOLED LAYER ALSO MAY BE OFFSET BY SFC WAA.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RISK FOR EMBEDDED MESOCIRCULATIONS MAY BE
MAXIMIZED ALONG FRONT WHERE BAND OF TSTMS IMPINGES ON NARROW CHANNEL
OF RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER VORTICITY...WITH
LLJ-ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 250-400 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH
EVIDENT FROM SGF VWP AND CNW PROFILER.

..EDWARDS.. 01/17/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37609413 38139339 38639221 38839116 37849110 36909194
36669392 37369413 37609413

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