SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230225
INZ000-ILZ000-230430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0825 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IL AND WRN/CNTRL IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 230225Z - 230430Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN IL AND
WRN/CNTRL IND TONIGHT. MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A WW.
AT 02Z...A 996 MB SURFACE LOW WAS MOVING FROM ERN KS INTO WRN
MO...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD INTO NRN IL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE
TO AID IN THE NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE /AROUND 8-10 C AT 850 MB/
ABOVE A COOL STABLE SURFACE AIRMASS /TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM NEAR
40F OVER NRN IND TO AROUND 60F OVER SRN IL AND SRN IND/. AS STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
06Z...HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE
NWD OUT OF SRN IL INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN IL...AND THEN MOVE EWD
INTO WRN/CNTRL IND. IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER IL/IND...WHICH WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC
FOR AN APPRECIABLE SVR WEATHER RISK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
STRONG/DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE EJECTING CYCLONE...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE NIGHT FOR SIGNS OF GREATER THAN
ANTICIPATED DESTABILIZATION.
..GARNER.. 01/23/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 40548549 39078586 38478717 38478912 39098966 40428917
41538734 40548549
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