SWODY1
SPC AC 051253
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN BLOCKY THIS PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE
WLYS CONTINUING TO BE SHUNTED N AND E ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN CANADA BY
REMNANT ANTICYCLONE OVER BC/AB. MO UPR LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
ESE INTO SRN IL/IND BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY MON AS THE SYSTEM
TEMPORARILY ELONGATES IN RESPONSE TO PASSING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
CROSSING THE LWR GRT LKS/MID ATLANTIC. SOUTH OF THESE
FEATURES...LOW AMPLITUDE WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM NRN MEXICO TO
THE S ATLANTIC CST.
A WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT ORIGINALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MO UPR
SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE E FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO OFF THE CAROLINA
CST TNGT/EARLY MON. THE COLD FRONT MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR A FEW
TSTMS THIS AFTN. OTHER STORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF TX AND FL THROUGH
MON.
...SERN STATES TODAY/TNGT...
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE STEADILY E ACROSS PARTS OF
AL...GA...AND SC TODAY...WHILE THE NRN PART EDGES SLOWLY S ACROSS
NC. WLY FLOW ALOFT AND JUST OFF THE SFC WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
REGION. BUT GIVEN MODEST SFC HEATING...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD
LINGER TO SUPPORT POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AOB 500 J PER
KG/ AHEAD OF FRONT. FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK...MINIMIZING OVERALL STORM COVERAGE. MODERATE
UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER FLOW MAY...HOWEVER...FOSTER ONE OR TWO
MULTICELLS AND/OR SHORT LINES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
COMPARATIVELY RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FARTHER S OVER
MUCH OF FL. BUT MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM WRN CUBA WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING. BUOYANCY
AND UPLIFT ALONG SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS MAY NEVERTHELESS PROVE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WDLY SCTD DIURNAL STORMS. WEAK WIND
FIELD/LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE STRENGTH/ORGANIZATION. SOME
STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST OVER S FL THROUGH EARLY MON AS
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE CONTINUES NEWD.
...SRN/S CNTRL/SE TX...
UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER N CNTRL MEXICO EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED TSTMS ATOP POST-FRONTAL COOL DOME OVER
MAINLY S TX AND THE ADJACENT CSTL WATERS THROUGH LATER TODAY. A
SECOND...WEAKER IMPULSE MAY PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED STORMS
OVER DEEP S TX AND THE LWR/MIDDLE TX GULF CSTL PLN TNGT/EARLY MON.
RELATIVELY WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES PER OBSERVED AND FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO POSE A
RISK FOR SVR HAIL.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 02/05/2012
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