SWODY1
SPC AC 060536
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL
ROCKIES WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS SWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH ALSO
MOVING SWD INTO THE N-CNTRL/NERN CONUS. FARTHER EAST...A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM PARTS OF SRN
IL/IND TOWARD THE EAST COAST. TO THE SOUTH OF THESE
FEATURES...LOW-AMPLITUDE WSWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM NRN MEXICO TO
THE S ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SFC...A FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AND INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN FL
PENINSULA...WHILE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE STRAITS OF
FL...THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NWRN CARIBBEAN SEA.
...FL PENINSULA AND KEYS TODAY/TONIGHT...
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND BANDS OF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AMIDST A PREDOMINANTLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAINTENANCE
OF A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...FEATURING PW VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL PER BLENDED AMSU/SSMI DATA...WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WHILE
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OWING TO WATER-LOADING
PROCESSES...CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION THUS LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION.
FURTHERMORE...THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO PREVENT CONVECTION FROM ATTAINING ANY APPRECIABLE
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT...TRACK...
AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...FOR WHICH SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. IF THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND ATTENDANT CYCLONIC
FLOW STRENGTHENS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY IMPACT THE FL KEYS AND
PARTS OF SOUTH FL. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO
HIGH FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM.
...SRN TX TODAY/THIS EVENING...
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST ATOP A POST-FRONTAL COLD
DOME...AS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS MAINTAINED
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MINOR MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE AREA MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED/WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION...AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE NOT
WARRANTED ATTM.
...FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
CYCLONE...LIMITED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND A WEAK IMPULSE
PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...VERY LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT SUFFICIENTLY LOW
SUCH THAT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA IS NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED.
..COHEN/GOSS.. 02/06/2012
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