SWODY1
SPC AC 091629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST THU FEB 09 2012
VALID 091630Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SE FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A MOIST NELY FLOW REGIME IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS S FL IMMEDIATELY N OF
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND THE BAHAMAS. WEAK
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD
BREAKS ACROSS SE FL...AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST MAY
SUPPORT CONVECTION THAT IS DEEP ENOUGH TO POSE A RISK FOR A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
...SW AND S TX THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM AS OF MID MORNING WILL CONTINUE
ESEWD TO W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM AND ASCENT/MOISTENING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR 700 MB...WITH MUCAPE
OF 100-200 J/KG POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT. THE DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
BUOYANCY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION
BEGINNING THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS W/SW TX...SPREADING INTO
DEEP S TX NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE.
..THOMPSON/BROYLES/MOSIER.. 02/09/2012
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