Sunday, February 12, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121237
SWODY1
SPC AC 121235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY WILL PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS. COLD
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-25C TO -23C AT 500 MB/ WILL SUPPORT
SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ASCENT /AUGMENTED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS/ FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM UT AND NRN/ERN AZ INTO THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES
DURING THE DAY.

MEANWHILE...SFC PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...OWING TO THE EWD MOTION OF A BROAD
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN STATES AND THE WLY COMPONENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. A SFC TROUGH AND LOW WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...AS A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IN THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CROSSES THE SWRN STATES AND SRN ROCKIES BEFORE
APPROACHING TX. AS THIS OCCURS...A LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND PROMOTE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WAA
ATOP A SFC-BASED COLD LAYER. WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN THE PRESENCE
OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS WRN/CNTRL TX AND SERN NM.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 02/12/2012

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