Tuesday, February 7, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071246
SWODY1
SPC AC 071244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2012

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN OVER THE LWR 48 WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH
AMPLITUDE BLOCK OVER WRN CANADA...WITH THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS
ONCE AGAIN REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE SEASONAL NORM ACROSS NRN AND
CNTRL CANADA. HOWEVER...SEVERAL SEMI-CONTINUOUS BANDS OF LESSER WLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH WED. GIVEN DRY AND/OR
STABLE CONDITIONS PRESENT OVER MOST AREAS...ONLY THE BELT OF
ENHANCED FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC TOWARD BAJA CA AND NW
MEXICO...AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET PERSISTING FROM CNTRL MEXICO TO THE
S ATLANTIC CST...ARE LIKELY TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY CONUS TSTM
POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.

...SRN/CNTRL FL TODAY/THIS EVE...
SEASONABLY MOIST AIR...WITH PW AOA 1.25 INCHES...WILL PERSIST AHEAD
OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSING CNTRL FL TODAY/TNGT. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT AT LEAST MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
REGION...DESPITE WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT...AND ALONG INVERTED TROUGH /SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...MAY
INITIATE ISOLD AFTN STORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM SUSTENANCE AND STRENGTH.

...SRN CA CST TODAY/TNGT...
IN AFOREMENTIONED BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW APPROACHING BAJA
CA...SATELLITE SHOWS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ATTM
AMPLIFYING SEWD OFF THE SRN CA CST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD DEEPEN INTO
A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SAN DIEGO CST EARLY WED. PRIND ARE THAT THE
ASSOCIATED AREAS OF DEEP ASCENT/LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...MINIMIZING THE RISK FOR TSTMS ALONG
THE CST.

...DEEP S TX TNGT...
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO YIELD A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES TNGT/EARLY WED AS SUBTROPICAL JET AMPLIFIES DOWNSTREAM FROM
BAJA TROUGH...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING WAA
ATOP S TX COOL DOME. ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR
SVR WEATHER.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 02/07/2012

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