SWODY1
SPC AC 061255
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG ZONAL FLOW NOW OVER S CNTRL/SE CANADA
WILL MOVE S INTO THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS AND NEW ENGLAND
THIS PERIOD AS AMPLIFIED BLOCK PERSISTS OVER WRN CANADA. THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE GRT BASIN UPR LOW TO BEGIN PROGRESSING E TOWARD
THE CNTRL HI PLNS...AND IL/IND UPR LOW TO MOVE E INTO MD/DE.
FARTHER S...LOW AMPLITUDE WSW FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM NRN MEXICO TO
THE S ATLANTIC CST. AT LWR LVLS...COLD/STNRY FRONT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA...AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS NEWD FROM THE FL STRAITS TO OFF THE
FL/GA CST.
...FL PENINSULA AND KEYS TODAY/TNGT...
COMBINATION OF MODEST BUOYANCY WITH SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG
WEAKENING FRONT OVER CNTRL/NRN FL...AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER S FL...WILL SUPPORT ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TODAY. ALTHOUGH MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN WEAK...PW AOA 1.50 INCHES AND SFC HEATING MAY YIELD POCKETS
OF SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...WHILE WEAK DEEP WINDS WILL
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...WATER LOADING/HI PW MAY FOSTER
A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. BACKED LOW LVL WINDS WILL EXIST
THROUGH THE DAY IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER FAR S FL AND THE FL
STRAITS...IN NE QUADRANT OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW. WHILE THE LOW WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION...ATTM IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT LOW LVL WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO POSE AN
APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES.
...S TX TODAY/THIS EVE...
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ATOP A POST-FRONTAL COLD DOME AS A
PLUME OF MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE STREAMS ENE ACROSS REGION. WEAK
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES IN THIS FLOW MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODIC AREAS OF MAINLY WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION.
WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SVR
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
...FOUR CORNERS/WRN CO THIS AFTN...
DAYTIME HEATING AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO
WDLY SCTD DIURNAL CONVECTION BENEATH MID LVL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH GRT BASIN UPR LOW. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT COOL PROFILES AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
SUCH ACTIVITY ISOLD.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 02/06/2012
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