SWODY1
SPC AC 181630
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...
...GULF COAST STATES...
A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH /WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER JET/
OVER SOUTHWEST TX WILL PROGRESS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INCREASINGLY
TAKE ON A NEUTRAL/SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT REACHES
THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WHILE ALSO PHASING
WITH AN ADDITIONAL IMPULSE OVER THE LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY.
NEAR/AHEAD OF AN ONGOING SQUALL LINE ACROSS SOUTHERN LA...A WARM
FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED MORE MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY MOVE
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF
LA/SOUTHWEST AL...AS WELL AS THE FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST
GA LATER TONIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON THE ORDER OF
64-66 F /OR LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST/ WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO THREAT...WITH SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL SRH MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
EMBEDDED BOWS/POSSIBLE MESO-VORTICES AND PERHAPS A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE.
AS THE PARENT CYCLONE SPREADS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD/DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELD STRENGTHENS INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF MS/AL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.
WHILE A MORE MARGINALLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL EXIST WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT INLAND ACROSS THE REGION...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
IN THE FROM OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY EXIST
TONIGHT IN AREAS AS FAR E/NE AS FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN AL INTO SOUTH
GA.
..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 02/18/2012
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