SWODY1
SPC AC 100058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST THU FEB 09 2012
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...TX...
CONVECTIVE BAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TX WITHIN ZONE OF DCVA AND
PRE-FRONTAL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
OTHER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH FROM ERN NM INTO WRN TX
WHERE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE HAS BEEN OBSERVED. ACTIVITY IS
ELEVATED AND VERY SHALLOW. ISOLATED STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG SRN HALF OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND FROM CNTRL THROUGH
S-CNTRL TX WHERE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH STEEPER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE BASED BETWEEN 800
AND 700 MB. OTHER ISOLATED STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN
TX WITH ELEVATED ACTIVITY IN WAKE OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE BAND AND IN
VICINITY OF SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST
NEAR VORT MAX CENTER.
...FL...
ASCENT NORTH OF STALLED BOUNDARY...POSSIBLY AUGMENTED BY WEAK SRN
STREAM IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CONVECTION ACROSS S FL
TONIGHT. THE MIAMI 00Z RAOB SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A WEAK INVERSION IS EVIDENT AROUND 700 MB
WHICH APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING DEEPER CONVECTION. NEVERTHELESS
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO DEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.
..DIAL.. 02/10/2012
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