SWODY1
SPC AC 051624
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2012
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN STATES...
REMOVED GENERAL TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS AND GA. REST OF FCST
UNCHANGED.
DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE WAS IN FULL SWING ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND GA AS LOW/MID-LVL FLOW HAS TURNED WLY AHEAD OF THE
SYNOPTIC CDFNT. THE DECREASING INSTABILITY AND ONLY WEAK FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE/UPR SUPPORT WILL LIMIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND GA.
FARTHER S...COMPARATIVELY RICH LLVL MOISTURE WAS PRESENT OVER MUCH
OF FL. SEABREEZE/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING LLVL BUOYANCY
MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW TSTMS OVER NRN/CNTRL FL THIS AFTN. NO SVR
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED OWING TO MEAGER INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...UPR DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN/SCNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. DOWNSTREAM...CONVECTION WAS
INCREASING OVER WRN CUBA AND THE KEYS INVOF SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL ENVELOPE SRN FL TO
LIMIT HEATING...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTM PROBABILITIES. WEAK WIND FIELDS/BUOYANCY WILL
LIMIT SVR RISKS.
...CNTRL/SRN TX...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO GENERAL TSTM RISK.
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE EVENT LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING WAS TIED TO A
H25 SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAK. MAJORITY OF THE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS
NOW OVER THE WRN GULF WATERS. NEW TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER
THE BIG BEND REGION...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH TAIL-END OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NRN MEXICO/SRN NM.
SPORADIC TSTMS WILL OCCUR OVER CNTRL/SRN TX THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES CONFINED TO THE BIG BEND REGION EWD ACROSS THE
SRN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND INTO SCNTRL TX/COASTAL BEND. ACTIVITY WILL
BE ELEVATED ATOP THE COLD DOME THAT SETTLED INTO PLACE YESTERDAY
WITH FCST MUCAPE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO PRECLUDE SVR HAIL.
..RACY.. 02/05/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment