SWODY1
SPC AC 161940
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 PM CST THU FEB 16 2012
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z.
..BROYLES.. 02/16/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST THU FEB 16 2012/
...NE GULF/SE ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING.
PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP
NEWD ALONG A PRE-EXISTING FRONT FROM E CENTRAL GA/SC TO ERN NC BY
THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F ARE PRESENT S OF
THIS FRONT...BUT POOR LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL TEND TO
LIMIT INLAND DESTABILIZATION AND ANY RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
FARTHER SW...A BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE ESEWD OVER THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FED BY
WEAKENING WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE RICHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NRN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THESE STORMS WILL SOON PROGRESS OFFSHORE.
A CORRIDOR OF LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS LINGERS BETWEEN THE ONGOING
STORMS AND THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN MS/AL...AND THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM SE
AL INTO SW GA. HOWEVER...WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE RISK FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL.
...S TX THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SEWD TO THE NRN GULF OF CA AND NW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LOW...A SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED
ACROSS THE NW GULF AND JUST S OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE...AND A
REINFORCING FRONTAL SURGE IS BEGINNING TO SLOW IN ITS SWD PROGRESS
ACROSS S TX. WEAK SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT NEWD
FROM MEXICO TO S TX THROUGH TONIGHT...BY WHICH TIME A WAA REGIME
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED.
ONGOING STORMS W OF LRD HAVE SHOWN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT
THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BEFORE CROSSING THE RIVER.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS TO MOVE NEWD
FROM NE MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THUS HAVE ADDED
LOW HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
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