Saturday, February 18, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181233
SWODY1
SPC AC 181231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WEST TX AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY AND
AFFECT MUCH OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WHILE A WARM
FRONT LIES JUST OFF THE TX/LA COAST. THE WARM FRONT IS LIKELY TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND BECOME POSITIONED JUST ONSHORE. THIS WILL
LEAVE PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA/MS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WILL POSE A
THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG THE
COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST TX. THESE STORMS HAVE REMAINED SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEING
REPORTED. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES ASHORE LATER TODAY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN
LA/MS. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ON
THE WARM FRONT BY MIDDAY...FURTHER STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
AIDING THE RISK OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES AND
AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT
FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES IF A MORE CELLULAR STORM MODE CAN BE
ATTAINED OVER THE WARM SECTOR. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD EASTWARD
AND AFFECT PARTS OF AL/SOUTHWEST GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY LATE
TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS.

..HART/MOSIER/ROGERS.. 02/18/2012

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