SWODY1
SPC AC 021958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND
WEST TX...
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE 1630Z OUTLOOK.
LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED A STRIKE OVER THE WRN OK PANHANDLE
ATTENDANT TO FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
SPREADING INTO THIS AREA WITHIN EXIT REGION OF A 70 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL
JET AS OBSERVED BY TCC WIND PROFILER. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS SOMEWHAT DRY YET INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED WITH SSEWD EXTENT FROM SERN CO INTO
NERN NM AND THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...NETWORK OF WIND PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWPS ACROSS W TX
INDICATED THE SLY LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED TO 30-40 KT SUPPORTING A
CONTINUED RETURN OF MOISTURE. 16Z EXPERIMENTAL WRF-HRRR WAS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z WRF-NMM SHOWING BEST POTENTIAL FOR GREATER
TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TX PANHANDLE TO OCCUR AFTER 03/00Z.
GIVEN THE LATER TIME FOR INITIATION...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT INCLUDING THE TORNADO THREAT WILL TEND TO BE REDUCED AS THE
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING LIMITS THE ABILITY FOR PARCELS TO REMAIN
SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
PRIOR TO 00Z...THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH
THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.
..PETERS.. 02/02/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012/
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH AN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH OVER
AZ/NM. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HI PLAINS THIS EVENING AND HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ASSUMING MOISTURE CAN RETURN AS INDICATED BY A
CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS OVER
WEST OK/TX...BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE TX HILL COUNTRY. GPS-DERIVED PWAT AND IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOW THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING ABOVE THE SURFACE INTO WESTERN NORTH
TX...AND WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BROKEN CLOUDS
ALLOW SOME HEATING. BY LATE AFTERNOON IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
DEWPOINTS AROUND 50F WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS THE RED RIVER.
THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN OK THROUGH THE
EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...THERE MAY
BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AROUND DUSK WHERE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WOULD ALLOW SURFACE-BASED PARCELS TO
REACH THE LFC. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
OK...WITH A CONTINUED BUT LOW THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND.
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