Sunday, February 12, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121629
SWODY1
SPC AC 121627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN CONUS WITH A
PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM FROM CA TO THE SRN PLAINS. WITH RESPECT TO
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE
EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM UT/AZ THIS
MORNING TO TX/OK BY EARLY MONDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING
THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS.
OVERNIGHT...THE LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL SPREAD EWD TO W TX...ABOVE AN
INCREASING SLY LLJ. THE LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EROSION OF THE
ARCTIC AIR MASS NOW COVERING MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...AS WELL AS
MOISTENING NEAR AND ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE NET RESULT WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 50-200 J/KG
ROOTED 800-700 MB/...AND AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY TONIGHT FROM SE NM INTO W/NW TX. THE CONVECTION
COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES TONIGHT...BUT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS OF TX WHERE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL LIKELY BECOME MARGINALLY WARM FOR
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 02/12/2012

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