SWODY2
SPC AC 091725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST THU FEB 09 2012
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD THROUGH WY PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE A LEAD TROUGH NOW OVER
NM REACHING CENTRAL TX LATE DAY 1. THE PHASED TROUGHS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY EWD ON FRIDAY FROM CENTRAL TX TO THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST BY
12Z SATURDAY WITHIN A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET.
...SOUTH TX AND LA COAST...
TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FROM LATE DAY 1 INTO MAINLY THE
FRIDAY MORNING PORTION OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING/WARM AIR ADVECTION AS INDICATED IN THE DAY
1 DISCUSSION WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL TX TROUGH AT 12Z
FRIDAY. AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE NWRN
GULF/LOWER MS VALLEY...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM THE WRN TO CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WAA AND MIDLEVEL ASCENT MAY SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO NEAR THE LA
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME IS
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
...FL...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
DAY 1 AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA. MODELS MAINTAIN WEAK FORCING...THOUGH SUFFICIENT
HEATING/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TSTMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS CENTRAL/SOUTH FL COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. OVERALL...SEVERE TSTMS ARE
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY.
..PETERS.. 02/09/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment