SWODY2
SPC AC 100535
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST THU FEB 09 2012
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER HIGH CENTER REMAINS PROMINENT OVER WESTERN CANADA
...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF A SERIES OF
SPLITTING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BREAK DOWN UPPER RIDGING
NEAR THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST...AS THEY PROGRESS INLAND TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ONE IMPULSE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO DIG
INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLATEAU LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW...NOW TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...APPEAR LIKELY TO LIFT ACROSS THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU...TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THE SPLIT FLOW BELTS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONVERGE INTO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE MIDDLE AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AS
A COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXPANDS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
CONTINUED DRYING AND REINFORCEMENT OF STABLE CONDITIONS WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENTS ACROSS THE WEST COULD LEAD TO
AT LEAST SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
...GREAT BASIN...
MODELS ACTUALLY SUGGEST SOME DRYING OF THE ENVIRONMENT MAY OCCUR
BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE INSOLATION IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA AND UTAH. COUPLED WITH
MID-LEVEL COOLING...THIS IS FORECAST TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CAPE...AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIFT MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING...BUT THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN DEEPER CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SPARSE IN
COVERAGE...THEN DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
..KERR.. 02/10/2012
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