SWODY2
SPC AC 061721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY
ESEWD OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED REINFORCING SURGE
OF CONTINENTAL AIR SPREADS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. FARTHER
S...A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM S FL WWD ACROSS THE
SRN GULF OF MEXICO. LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL/S
FL WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING
THE DAY AS EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA EJECT EWD OVER N FL. FARTHER W...
A MOISTENING WAA PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER S TX TOMORROW
NIGHT. THE LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTENING COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
WEAK INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE LIGHTNING RISK APPEARS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME.
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 33 N AND 134 W IS FORECAST TO DIG
SEWD JUST OFF THE SRN CA/NRN BAJA COAST TOMORROW. THE RICHEST
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...AND WEAK
OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT THE PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY INLAND. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONFIRM ONLY MINIMAL
BUOYANCY IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER...WITH RELATIVELY WARM EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS. THUS...THE PROSPECTS FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION INLAND
APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT MAINTAINING A TSTM OUTLOOK AREA FOR
COASTAL SRN CA.
..THOMPSON.. 02/06/2012
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