SWODY3
SPC AC 020823
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CST THU FEB 02 2012
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY/TX COASTAL PLAIN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE MID-MO
VALLEY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND
TX COASTAL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE DAY AS SFC TEMPS WARM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW ABOUT 500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WOULD BE A
BORDER-LINE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WIND DAMAGE COULD BE THE
MORE FAVORED THREAT ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ALONG
THE TX COASTAL PLAINS WHERE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE SFC-BASED. A
HAIL THREAT WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR AT THE NRN END OF THE MOIST AXIS
IN THE MID-MS VALLEY WHERE TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COLDER AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ENHANCED BY THE MID-LEVEL JET.
AT THIS POINT...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING TWO FACTORS.
THE FIRST BEING THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR. IF INSTABILITY
REMAINS WEAK AS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST MODEL RUNS...THEN THE SEVERE
THREAT WOULD PROBABLY BE MARGINAL. THE SECOND BEING THE TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE THE FASTER SOLUTIONS AND ARE
PREFERRED OVER THE SLOWER NAM. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE DRAWN THE 5
PERCENT PROBABILITY FROM THE TX/OK/AR STATE-LINE EWD TO INCLUDE ALL
OF MS. CONSIDERED ADDING A SLIGHT RISK IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY BUT
THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY KEEP THE THREAT
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 02/02/2012
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