Friday, February 10, 2012

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100744
SWODY3
SPC AC 100742

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2012

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WESTERN CANADIAN MID/UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL
BECOME A LITTLE LESS PROMINENT DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS INCLUDES ONE BRANCH
EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST...AND AS FAR
EAST AS THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY...AS A
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AMPLIFIED
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH SHIFTS RAPIDLY EAST/ NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST.

IN RESPONSE TO THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT...THE CENTER OF A COLD
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU
INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD INTRUSION INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...WITH MID 50S TO AROUND 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTED
MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN LOWER/MID TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

AS A RESULT...DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED
REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...AND THE FIRST
COUPLE IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROGRESSING EAST OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...SHOULD BE LIMITED. THUS... WHILE THE
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION MAY NOT
BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...PROBABILITIES LIKELY
WILL BE LOW. AND SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..KERR.. 02/10/2012

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