SWOD48
SPC AC 040753
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2012
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW IS HANDLED IN A SIMILAR FASHION BY BOTH THE
EURO AND GFS MODELS INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE. EXTENSIVE RIDGE AXIS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS WRN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK. DEEP-LAYER NLY FLOW BETWEEN ERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
WRN SEMI-CIRCLE OF POLAR VORTEX OVER NRN CANADA WILL ENSURE THE
EFFICIENT DELIVERY OF ARCTIC AIR TO MUCH OF THE NRN AND CNTRL U.S.
THROUGH MIDWEEK...MODELS ALSO DEPICT THE EVOLUTION OF A BAJA LOW BY
DAY 6/THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SHUNTED WELL
SOUTH INTO MEXICO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE BLOCKING UPPER
RIDGE SHOWS LITTLE INDICATION OF WEAKENING. GIVEN THE COLD AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS...AND LACK OF STRONG ASCENT AND DEARTH OF
INSTABILITY DEPICTED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS UNLIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.
..CARBIN.. 02/04/2012
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