SWOD48
SPC AC 091000
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST THU FEB 09 2012
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
00Z/9TH ECMWF/GFS INDICATE THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH BECOMING INCREASINGLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CONUS. THE CONTINUED PREVALENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES WILL INITIALLY RESULT
IN LITTLE OR NO APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT AROUND DAY 5/MONDAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION SHOULD
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN INLAND.
THEREAFTER...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SEVERE THREAT
COULD DEVELOP BY AROUND LATE DAY 6/TUESDAY INTO DAYS 7/8
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS...POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO GULF COAST STATES AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS/MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS JUNCTURE.
..GUYER.. 02/09/2012
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