SWOD48
SPC AC 110939
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BRANCHES OF STRONGER FLOW APPEAR
LIKELY TO PERSIST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS NORTH AMERICA INTO
AND THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT...IN THE WAKE OF A
SIGNIFICANT POLAR VORTEX RETREATING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES REGION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SUBTROPICAL
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN MAY BECOME A MORE PROMINENT FEATURE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE AXIS MAY BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE BECOMING SUPPRESSED AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ACCELERATES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER DIGGING EAST SOUTHEAST
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT AN EVENTUAL
CONSOLIDATION OF THESE FEATURES IS POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...
PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE STRENGTH...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE
MOISTENING OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER AND INLAND RETURN
FLOW WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD INCLUDE THE RISK FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IT STILL SEEMS ONLY A REMOTE POSSIBILITY
THAT CONDITIONS WILL COME TOGETHER TO SUPPORT A SUBSTANTIAL REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..KERR.. 02/11/2012
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