SWOD48
SPC AC 120949
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...POTENTIAL TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGION SVR THREAT AREA...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS
WITHIN A COUPLE BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
INCLUDES THE MANNER IN WHICH ONE SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE LIFTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES REGION...AND THROUGH AT LEAST
BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
NOSING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...AND A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN GULF
STATES. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. IT IS
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD INCLUDE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES. HOWEVER...WITH GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SUGGESTING THAT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN RATHER
WEAK...THE RISK FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT STILL SEEMS
LOW...AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE
MINIMUM THRESHOLD /30 PERCENT DAY 3/ FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT AREA.
..KERR.. 02/12/2012
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