SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010706
MSZ000-LAZ000-010900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CST WED FEB 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LA TO SWRN MS
CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 010706Z - 010900Z
A MARGINAL RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS WITHIN
A CLUSTER OF TSTMS EXTENDING NEWD FROM SWRN LA. A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED ATTM.
SW TO NE BAND OF TSTMS FROM CALCASIEU TO AVOYELLES PARISH LA APPEARS
LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN AN AXIS OF CONFLUENCE AMIDST A MODEST
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z WRF-NSSL/NMM
GUIDANCE. EMBEDDED CELL IN ALLEN/EVANGELINE COUNTIES HAS SHOWN
EVIDENCE OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL S/SWLYS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN...0-1 KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION. GIVEN PRESENCE OF A RICH/MOIST THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS/TEMPERATURE IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S...A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
TORNADO MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..GRAMS.. 02/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30179359 30679293 31319180 31749103 31819069 31629043
31329046 30689107 29809299 29779366 30179359
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