SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030108
OKZ000-TXZ000-030215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CST THU FEB 02 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TX S PLAINS AND PANHANDLE REGION INTO
ADJACENT WRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 030108Z - 030215Z
CONVECTION SLOWLY EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING ATTM ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE REGION CORRESPONDS WITH INCREASING SEVERE RISK. NEW WW
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
LATEST VAD/PROFILER ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW INCREASE IN SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW FIELD ACROSS W TX/WRN OK ATTM...WITH CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
WARM ADVECTION SUPPORTING CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE
TX PANHANDLE EWD/NEWD INTO SWRN OK/SWRN KS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY
REMAINS EVIDENT -- PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND EVENING
RAOBS...WHICH HAS ACTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THUS FAR.
PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THIS HOWEVER IS AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FLOW
FIELD WITH HEIGHT...AS BOUNDARY LAYER SELYS VEER TO SLY AT H85...AND
THEN TO SWLY AT 50-70 KT AT H5.
OVERALL...EXPECT THREAT TO BE PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- WITH
A FEW STRONGER SUPERCELL STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LIKELY
TO BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL NEAR 1" IN DIAMETER. THREAT FOR
A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO ALSO IS EVIDENT -- PARTICULARLY IF
STORMS CAN GROW UPSCALE LINEARLY...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR --
PARTICULARLY ON SERN FRINGES OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHERE GREATER
LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE OBSERVED.
..GOSS.. 02/03/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33260157 33890160 34980091 36369984 36669777 35279779
33579917 33260157
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