SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180515
TXZ000-180645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX /INCLUDING TX HILL COUNTRY/ ENE TO PARTS
OF E TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 180515Z - 180645Z
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL TX /INCLUDING THE HILL COUNTRY/ ENEWD INTO PARTS OF E TX
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL /AOA 1 INCH
DIAMETER/ WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT OVERALL THREAT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO LOW WITH NWD EXTENT TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A WW AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...FARTHER S...A FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM
INTENSITIES/COVERAGE WITH ACTIVITY FROM MAVERICK-MEDINA COUNTIES MAY
PROMPT THE NEED FOR A WATCH ALONG AND JUST N OF THE 01Z SLIGHT RISK
AREA.
MID-LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A WARM FRONT HAD MOVED NWD
A ROW OF COUNTIES IN DEEP S TX SINCE 00Z...WITH THE NEW POSITION
EXTENDING FROM ZAPATA TO KLEBERG COUNTIES...AND EWD INTO THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO. WSR-88D VADS AND WIND PROFILER DATA INDICATED A
25-30 KT SLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM BRO TO SAT RESULTING IN WAA ATOP A
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. MEANWHILE...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM LLANO COUNTY W/SWWD TO VAL VERDE
AND MAVERICK COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY IS ATTENDANT TO
STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS TX WITH THE
APPROACH OF NRN MEXICO SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL EPISODIC
STRONGER STORMS WERE ALSO NOTED PRIMARILY WITHIN THE NERN EXTENT OF
THE WAA REGIME INVOF CLL.
CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL SUSTAINED ELEVATED UPDRAFTS
/SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY OVER AND NE OF THE TX HILL
COUNTRY/ WILL DEVELOP INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR ALREADY RANGING FROM 40-65 KT AND MUCAPE 500-1500 J/KG SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL/S TX AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH...WITH THE EVENTUAL NEED
FOR A WW ACROSS THE SWRN-SRN EXTENT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
..PETERS.. 02/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29909497 28989707 28539800 28149933 28129995 28580032
29850078 30750014 31289854 31899528 31129487 29909497
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