SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181531
MSZ000-LAZ000-181630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...FAR SRN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 181531Z - 181630Z
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO BECOMING SURFACE-BASED THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND AND
EVENTUALLY TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN LA THIS
AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 1630Z.
BOWING STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT WITH LEAD SQUALL LINE
ACROSS ST LANDRY TO CAMERON PARISHES AS OF 1525Z. ALTHOUGH MODIFIED
12Z LCH RAOB SUGGESTS THIS BOW IS ELEVATED WITH MINIMAL
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
WARM/MOISTEN ACROSS SERN LA. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM
FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE SURGED NWD ACROSS SRN LA...NOW DRAPED EWD
TOWARDS LK PONTCHARTRAIN. ALTHOUGH THE RICHER MARITIME AIR MASS
REMAINS ALONG/JUST OFF THE SRN LA COAST...MODIFIED RUC/NAM SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 64-65 F SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS. GIVEN 0-1 KM SHEAR AOA 30 KT...AN INCREASING
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES IS ANTICIPATED.
..GRAMS.. 02/18/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29549266 29949222 30509216 30619151 30659076 30788955
30748899 30558873 28738892 28909097 29549266
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