SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191720
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-191845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA...FAR SRN SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 191720Z - 191845Z
A FEW TSTMS MAY FORM SHORTLY WITHIN SW-NE ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS
ACROSS PARTS OF SERN GA. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS...A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY
SUSTAINED CONVECTION. THE PROBABILITY OF A WW ISSUANCE IS 20
PERCENT.
17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1005 CYCLONE IN E-CNTRL GA WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS S-CNTRL GA INTO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE. A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY DEEPENED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN SW-NE
ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS ACROSS SERN GA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
UPSTREAM 12Z RAOBS INDICATE THE PREVALENCE OF MID-LEVEL DRYNESS
LIKELY ENTRAINING WITH SURFACE-BASED PARCELS...WHILE MODEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY.
NEVERTHELESS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW REACHED THE MIDDLE 70S
TO LOWER 80S AND GIVEN THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SRN APPALACHIANS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY
COMMENCE SHORTLY. STRONG LINE-PARALLEL DEEP-LAYER FLOW /EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AROUND 70 KT/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED
CLUSTER PRIMARILY CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
..GRAMS.. 02/19/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31728266 32278215 32568149 32678099 32728078 32658024
32438023 31708094 30558145 30528161 30438206 30588266
30978298 31308289 31728266
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