SWODY1
SPC AC 110559
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2012
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS REGION SWD INTO
THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AREA IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING THE IA/SRN MN
VICINITY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE PAC NW AND MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE NWRN CONUS...WHILE A LEE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...MO/AR/E TX/LA...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...FROM PARTS OF ERN KS/OK/ERN TX
EWD INTO THE OZARKS REGION WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WIDESPREAD...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND VERY
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE HEATING SHOULD HINDER OVERALL
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING VORT LOBE SE OF THE
MAIN LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINTAINING THE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION THROUGH PEAK
HEATING HOURS.
HAVING SAID THAT...INCREASING/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE
LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADO POTENTIAL. OVERALL...THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN MODULATED BY THE WEAK LAPSE RATES/VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...BUT A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON -- IN WHICH CASE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WOULD BE REALIZED. WHILE A CONDITIONAL
SCENARIO...THREAT WARRANTS CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA. THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...THOUGH SOME DECREASE IN THE
ALREADY-LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THREAT SHOULD WANE SOME
OVERNIGHT.
..GOSS.. 03/11/2012
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