DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221632
SWODY1
SPC AC 221630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX
REGION...

...CENTRAL GULF COAST TO TN VALLEY...
UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED/STACKED CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...A NORTH-SOUTH QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE A SLOW BUT STEADY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS QLCS...THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION /ALBEIT MODEST/ WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL
REGIONS...ALTHOUGH LIMITED CLOUD BREAKS/PERIPHERAL HEATING WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION/TN VALLEY.

WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE
DAY...OBSERVED WIND PROFILES /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 300 M2 PER S2/ STILL
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR QLCS-EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
BOWS/MESOVORTICES. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF WIND DAMAGE/FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY EVENING.

...EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR/FAR NORTHEAST TX...
WHILE CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HEIGHT RISES/NVA
ALOFT...THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
PIVOTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK ALOFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY MOIST
/LOWER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...COLD PROFILES ALOFT /-20 TO -25C
AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 500 J
PER KG OR LESS/. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WITHIN A NNE-SSW CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST OK INTO
WESTERN AR/FAR NORTHEAST TX IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. A
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE COLOCATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT/AMPLE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS/BOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

..GUYER/WEISS.. 03/22/2012

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