SWODY1
SPC AC 231625
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS AND LOWER OH
VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY...
...MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY INTO TN VALLEY...
UPPER LOW OVER SWRN MO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD TODAY AS STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT TRANSLATE ACROSS SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED
CIRCULATION...WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING ERN MO THIS EVENING AND THE
LOWER OH VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW WILL
CONTINUE EWD BENEATH THE UPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE PRIMARY LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NWD ACROSS THE TN AND
OH VALLEYS. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW /-26C AT 500 MB/...RESULTING IN STEEPER LAPSE RATES FROM
MO EWD INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MARGINAL CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
40S-LOWER 50S OVER MO AND WRN IL...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THIS AREA UNTIL THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EWD.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
ENHANCED OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A CYCLONIC UPPER JET ACROSS NRN AR...AND THIS WILL SPREAD
EWD/NEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW.
SEVERAL SHORT NORTH/SOUTH LINES OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING OVER SERN MO AND WRN KY INTO SRN IL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
JET DYNAMICS...AND STORMS IN THIS AREA MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM SERN MO/WRN PARTS OF TN
AND KY INTO IL INDICATING CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED HEATING WILL OCCUR
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING ZONES OF INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL IL INTO SWRN INDIANA.
FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
AIR MASS DESTABILIZES WITHIN THE CURRENT CLOUD-FREE REGION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR /50 KT IN LOWEST 6 KM/ AND
MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
...SRN AL/NWRN FL...
A BAND OF STORMS CONTINUES FROM SOUTH OF MOB ENEWD INTO SERN
AL...ALONG THE SERN EDGE OF STRONGER WSWLY WINDS ALOFT. MOIST LOW
LEVEL PROFILES AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT ARE SUPPORTING A FEW
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES INCLUDING SEVERAL SUPERCELLS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR. CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND DECREASE
IN SPEED.
..WEISS/GUYER.. 03/23/2012
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