Saturday, March 24, 2012

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241632
SWODY1
SPC AC 241630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS/COASTAL ATLANTIC...

...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE WILL MAKE A SLOW
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS/TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW...AMPLE CLOUD
BREAKS/HEATING ARE ALREADY OCCURRING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH
INHIBITION QUICKLY ERODING NEAR/IN THE LEE OF APPALACHIANS. TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD
OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT EMERGES FROM THE MOUNTAINS. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 344.

OVERALL...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR INITIAL SUPERCELLS. SUCH THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY EFFICIENT FOR SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION...PERHAPS
EVEN A FEW SIGNIFICANT SIZE HAIL STONES. MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT MAY ALSO MATERIALIZE AS STORMS CONGEAL TOWARD PIEDMONT AREAS.

...SOUTHEAST GA/NORTHEAST FL/COASTAL SC...
SEVERAL ONGOING/INCREASING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL POSE MAINLY AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS...SEE SEVERE TSTM WATCH 104 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS.

...PORTIONS OF KY/TN TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW...POCKETS OF HEATING
AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STRONGER LOW-TOPPED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN IN THE
PRESENCE OF LIMITED MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S
F/. SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
EVEN SOME FUNNELS/BRIEF TORNADO WITHIN A VORTICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT.

..GUYER.. 03/24/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: