SWODY1
SPC AC 221951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012
VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MS AND THE
FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE OK...WRN AR
AND FAR NE TX...
ONLY TWO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z. THE FIRST
CHANGE IS TO CONFINE THE CNTRL GULF COAST SLIGHT RISK AREA TO THE
MOBILE CWA WHERE A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THE 5 PERCENT WIND
DAMAGE PROBABILITY IS CONFINED TO ALABAMA...THE WRN FL PANHANDLE AND
FAR SRN MS. THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO TRIM THE WRN EDGE OF THUNDER FROM
PARTS OF SRN IL...WRN TN AND CNTRL MS.
..BROYLES.. 03/22/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2012/
...CENTRAL GULF COAST TO TN VALLEY...
UNDER THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF A CLOSED/STACKED CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...A NORTH-SOUTH QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE A SLOW BUT STEADY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS QLCS...THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION /ALBEIT MODEST/ WILL BE CONFINED TO COASTAL
REGIONS...ALTHOUGH LIMITED CLOUD BREAKS/PERIPHERAL HEATING WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION/TN VALLEY.
WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE
DAY...OBSERVED WIND PROFILES /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 300 M2 PER S2/ STILL
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR QLCS-EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND
BOWS/MESOVORTICES. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF WIND DAMAGE/FEW TORNADOES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY EVENING.
...EASTERN OK/WESTERN AR/FAR NORTHEAST TX...
WHILE CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HEIGHT RISES/NVA
ALOFT...THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
PIVOTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK ALOFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY MOIST
/LOWER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...COLD PROFILES ALOFT /-20 TO -25C
AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 500 J
PER KG OR LESS/. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WITHIN A NNE-SSW CORRIDOR ACROSS FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST OK INTO
WESTERN AR/FAR NORTHEAST TX IN VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. A
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE COLOCATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT/AMPLE
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS/BOW
DEVELOPMENT...WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.
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