SWODY1
SPC AC 071937
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CST WED MAR 07 2012
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
--- UPDATES ---
NO SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED ATTM. SOME
HI-RES/CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS THAT EXTEND INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS
REINFORCE NOTION OF ELEVATED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AFTER
06Z...NEAR TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BORDER AND S-CENTRAL KS...MOVING NEWD
WITH ISOLATED/SPORADIC SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER COVERAGE DOES NOT
APPEAR DENSE ENOUGH FOR MORE THAN MRGL UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITY.
..EDWARDS.. 03/07/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST WED MAR 07 2012/
AN UPPER LOW IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY...WHILE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
STATES. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CO/KS/NEB AND WILL MOVE INTO OK THIS
EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY RETURNING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS COMMON
THROUGHOUT MOST OF TX/OK. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER...AND ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN OK BY THU MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THESE AREAS SHOW
RATHER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT CAPE TO WARRANT
SOME RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS.
FARTHER NORTHEAST...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF MO/IA/IL.
HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND RISK
OF SEVERE HAIL.
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