SWODY1
SPC AC 081935
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST THU MAR 08 2012
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO WRN MS...
...NERN TX...SRN AR...NRN LA...WRN MS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO SURGE SWD ACROSS
NERN TX. FARTHER NE INTO AR...THE FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWER...PUSHED
BY A GROWING OUTFLOW.
BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING WIND...HAIL...AND BRIEF TORNADOES. CELLS ARE
CURRENTLY INCREASING OVER NERN TX...JUST SE OF THE METROPLEX.
HOWEVER...ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT COULD BE SHORT LIVED AS THE
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY UNDERCUTS THESE STORMS...IN WHICH CASE ONLY
HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT INTO AR...THERE MAY BE A
BETTER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WIND OR BRIEF TORNADOES WITH
CELLS THAT TRAVEL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE MIGHT ALSO BE A THREAT
WITH ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR...FROM FAR SRN
AR INTO NRN LA.
..JEWELL.. 03/08/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST THU MAR 08 2012/
...TX/AR/LA/MS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TODAY WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. DESPITE THIS
RIDGE...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING RICH
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND HELPING TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF TX/LA/AR/MS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR AND MARGINAL CAPE VALUES INDICATE A RISK OF OCCASIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL LIKELY FOCUS IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RISK AREA.
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