SWODY2
SPC AC 121718
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT MON MAR 12 2012
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND LAKE SUPERIOR AT
12Z/TUE WILL MOVE E/SEWD INTO QUEBEC AND NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY WED. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL FILL /ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD/ AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS ONTARIO INTO
QUEBEC. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THE
DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC...WHILE AN UPSTREAM
COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NRN APPALACHIANS BY TUE EVENING AND
GRADUALLY OVERTAKE THE LEE TROUGH.
...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...
IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO ONTARIO BY EARLY
TUE...LOW-LEVEL SWLYS SHOULD PROMOTE SURFACE DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO LIE FROM CNTRL NY SWWD INTO WRN VA. WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE 1 KM AGL...SETUP SHOULD PROMOTE AMPLE
SUNSHINE WITH MLCAPE RISING TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE
REGION WILL LIE ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WLYS...RESULTING
IN MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KT. COMBINED WITH PERHAPS
ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH...TSTM COVERAGE MAY BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW
SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS.
...SOUTHEAST TO CNTRL GULF COAST...
A FEW CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MAY EVOLVE ALONG THE TRAILING AND WEAKENING
WARM CONVEYOR TUE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE
FORCING/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...CONVECTION SHOULD TEND NOT TO BE
ORGANIZED AND SPATIAL CONCENTRATION REMAINS UNCLEAR. THUS...WILL
REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.
..GRAMS.. 03/12/2012
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