DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 201718
SWODY2
SPC AC 201717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT TUE MAR 20 2012

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO WOBBLE AND
MOVE SLOWLY NWD DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND EAST TX AS A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE WRN EDGE OF
THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ALONG A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
LOCATED FROM ERN AR SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN LA. THIS LINE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SERN LA AND SW MS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE FROM
BATON ROUGE NWD TO NATCHEZ MS SHOW MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG...0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 30-35 KT AND 850 MB FLOW OF 40-45 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH CELLS THAT ROTATE WITHIN THE LINE. A SEVERE THREAT
COULD EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS ERN AR BUT WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD
MAKE THE THREAT INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT.

...SW KS/WRN OK/NW TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD ACROSS NW TX INTO
WRN OK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS HEAT UP BENEATH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE FROM SW KS SSEWD
ACROSS WRN OK. SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S F AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 40S F ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW COULD BE ENOUGH FOR SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
CORES. THE POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SEE
TEXT AREA ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 03/20/2012

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