DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 221725
SWODY2
SPC AC 221724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2012

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MID-MS
VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A BELT
OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
ONGOING AT FRI 12Z ALONG THIS AXIS FROM SRN MS NNEWD INTO ERN TN
WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING SLOWLY EWD DURING THE DAY. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM AND INSTABILITY INCREASES AROUND MIDDAY...A SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DEVELOP FROM AROUND CHATTANOOGA SSWWD TO NEAR MOBILE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR FROM 18Z TO 21Z SHOW 30 TO 35
KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY
AFTERNOON SUGGESTING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT
THIS THREAT MAY BE MARGINAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY
FORECAST ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHERE THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXISTS.

...OH VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY AS THE EXIT
REGION OF A 50 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY. SOME
CONVECTION COULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IN THE OH
VALLEY BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD MARKEDLY INCREASE AROUND
MIDDAY AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES FROM THE
WEST. THE CONVECTION MAY BE BANDED AROUND THE NERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW BUT DISCRETE CELLS MAY ALSO INITIATE ALONG AN AXIS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN
KY...SRN IL AND SRN IND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT
21Z SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50 TO
60 KT AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM. THIS MAY SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO
OCCUR BUT LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK
SUGGESTING THE THREAT MAY REMAIN MARGINAL.

..BROYLES.. 03/22/2012

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