SWODY2
SPC AC 231716
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2012
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
VA...NC...SC AND SE GA...
...SRN VA/NC/SC/SE GA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...A SFC TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS SWD INTO THE ERN GULF COAST STATES. TO THE EAST OF
THE SFC TROUGH...THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BUT THEIR IS DISAGREEMENT ON
THE EXACT LOCATION. CONCERNING THE INSTABILITY AXIS...THE NAM IS
FURTHER WEST IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE GFS
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE CAROLINAS. HAVE TAKEN
INTO ACCOUNT BOTH SOLUTIONS WHICH INITIATE LATE MORNING STORMS ON
THE COASTAL PLAINS AND DEVELOP ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS. ETA-KF CONTROL MEMBER OF
THE SREF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AT 18Z TO 21Z SHOW
MLCAPE OF NEAR 1200 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 KT AND LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT
A SEVERE THREAT IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE MOST WITH HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE DEVELOP WWD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS NEW CELLS INITIATE AND MOVE OUT OF THE APPALACHIAN
FOOTHILLS.
...OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SATURDAY. AS
SFC TEMPS WARM BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IN KY AND MIDDLE TN.
DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SOME OF THE CONVECTION
COULD CONTAIN HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AXIS OF INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND NWD ACROSS WV INTO SW PA WHERE A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 03/23/2012
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