SWODY2
SPC AC 241721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ERN SC/NC/VA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. BENEATH
THE LOW...WARMING SFC TEMPS AND DESTABILIZATION WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY FROM THE
APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS OF NC AND VA ESEWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM-KF SREF CONTROL MEMBER AT 21Z SUNDAY
IN CNTRL NC SHOW SBCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITH 500 MB TEMP OF
-20C AND A MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE OF 7.5 C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CORES IN AREAS WITH MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...VERY WEAK FLOW BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL FAVOR
PULSE AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
THREATS LIKELY REMAINING MARGINAL.
...SRN ND/SD...
A DISTINCT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
MARKEDLY IN THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEL FORECASTS QUICKLY DESTABILIZE THE
MID-LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD AND LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN. THIS ALONG WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD HELP THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 09Z IN NRN SD AND SRN ND SHOW MUCAPE
OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 KT. THIS ALONG WITH
A 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE OF 8.0 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE AREA AT SEE TEXT.
..BROYLES.. 03/24/2012
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