Sunday, March 25, 2012

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251729
SWODY2
SPC AC 251728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE...A DEEPENING SFC LOW
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN MT WITH A PRONOUNCED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
SSEWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO WRN NEB. BACKED SELY FLOW SHOULD EXIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS WITH A MOIST AXIS LOCATED FROM NCNTRL ND
SEWD INTO ERN NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S F. THIS ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND WARMING SFC
TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF
THE SFC TROUGH. IN SPITE OF THE DESTABILIZATION...A CAPPING
INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM INITIATING
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE DIFFERENT
CONCERNING THE EXACT LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE FROM ERN
WY EWD ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL SD...SPREADING NNEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA MONDAY EVENING EVENTUALLY REACHING NCNTRL ND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THE 03Z TO 06Z
TIMEFRAME GENERALLY SHOW MUCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT AND 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 C/KM. THIS
SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH EFFICIENT LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION. ALTHOUGH SFC-BASED STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVENT....FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE CELLS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD SUGGESTING HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN NW KS AND
WRN NEB...SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL IF STORMS CAN INITIATE. HOWEVER...THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN WEAKLY FORCED WITH SOME CAPPING SUGGESTING ANY UPDRAFT
THAT CAN INITIATE WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
TX MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE MODELS INITIATE SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP...WEAK FORCING AND
RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT THE CONVECTION FROM
BECOMING ORGANIZED. SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES COULD CONTAIN A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE IN A NARROW WINDOW CENTERED
AROUND MAX HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 03/25/2012

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