Thursday, March 15, 2012

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151735
SWODY2
SPC AC 151719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
1219 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS......

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY 300 MI OFF THE BAJA COAST...WILL
EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY PEAK HEATING FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD AT ROUGHLY 20KT AND THIS SPEED
WOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION ALONG
THE DRY LINE FROM WEST TX INTO SWRN KS. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD SFC DEW
POINTS WILL MIX INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S ALONG THE DRY LINE AS
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. THIS SHOULD EASILY
BREAK THE CAP AND ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT-WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE DOWNSTREAM
INTO WRN OK WHERE MUCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE AOA 2000 J/KG. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS CONVECTION COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS LLJ WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION IN RESPONSE TO SHORT-WAVE.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT AND SECONDARILY A FEW
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND REPORTS COULD BE NOTED.

...ELSEWHERE...

RELATIVELY HIGH PW VALUES FOR MARCH HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH MANY AREAS AOA ONE INCH. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TOWARD THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS AND THESE FEATURES SHOULD ENCOURAGE
CONVECTION BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES ARE
FORECAST TO BE EXTREMELY WEAK AND THE PREDICTABILITY FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT PROBS AT THIS TIME.

A FEW TSTMS MAY ALSO APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
STRONG SPEED MAX DIGS TOWARD THE CNTRL CA COAST. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF BREACHING LEVELS REQUIRED FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.

..15_OWS.. 03/15/2012

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